Thursday 14 August 2008

Loose Lips...

"I don't see any prospect for the use of military force by the United States in this situation."

With these words the U.S. Secretary of Defense assured the Russian government that, so long as it was ready to absorb whatever international criticism might come its way, and put up with assorted diplomatic sanctions, it can do as it pleases in Georgia.

The reality is that Robert Gates was almost definitely stating the obvious. The odds of any American military intervention were considered long from the beginning of the crisis. But in diplomacy, as in any other form of competitive relations, even the most unlikely of possibilities will play a role in any decision making. What this means is, until Mr. Gates' statement, the Russian government of Vladimir Putin had to consider its moves carefully, lest it make a move that would be considered over the line by the United States. They knew that US intervention was a remote possibility to say the least, but it could not be ignored.

It is now much easier to ignore. Essentially, Mr. Gates is saying to the Russians, "Stop, or I will say stop again", as the old comedy line goes. So long as Russia sees its position in organizations such as the G8 as being of great importance, this will be of little consequence. Russia is also seeking World Trade Organization membership, which the US and other western nations could block, providing another diplomatic stick and carrot. But if Mr. Putin is willing to sacrifice these, and this is not entirely out of the question, then Mr. Gates' words may be a significant danger to the continued existence of democracy in Georgia.

Mr. Gates might better consider his words more carefully in the future.