Sand in the Shorts: Turmoil for Turmel

It's a tough blow for the NDP to face a new day with their leader, the one who led them to an unexpected breakthrough in Quebec and unprecedented popularity nationally, on the sidelines fighting a deadly illness. While all Canadians, NDP or not, are focused on the health of a man fighting for his life, there are undoubtedly questions going through the minds of the members of the party he leads.

The past election was, for the NDP, a triumph of the leader over the party. Jack Layton is the face of the party, particularly in Quebec, and a record number of Canadians decided they liked that face. While veteran MP’s were key to the victories in their own ridings, outside of these victory was all about Jack. In Quebec, the complete absence of a locally known candidate generally proved irrelevant. Quebec loved Jack, and threw their votes at him, roses for the torero who slew the Bloc Quebecois.

But with that triumph of personality comes the risk that, without Layton front and centre, the support will wane. Fortunately, this isn't an immediate concern as the next election won't be until fall 2015, and hopefully Layton returns as planned THIS fall.

Regardless, with Layton trying to move the NDP closer to the political centre, Ms. Turmel's background seems rather “old school” leftist to be put in charge of the party. This is particularly true now, when a caucus made up of newly-minted MP’s needs to coalesce into a real party, capable of demonstrating to Canadians that it is a government-in-waiting, and a moderate one at that.

Ms. Turmel has spent the major part of her life involved in public sector unions, finishing as National President of the Public Service Alliance of Canada. She is currently the Opposition critic for Public Works and Governmental Services, which already seems a little like the fox guarding the henhouse. Putting her in place as interim leader is another thing entirely. While there is no question she can, and will, oppose the government, can she do it wisely? If she turns out to be a shill for government unions, she'll win little support for the NDP in new territories.

If Layton is not able to return by the beginning of the new session in the Commons, it will leave Turmel to take the floor during Question Period. Having listened to her, she does not have the speaking, and more specifically English, skills expected of a leader. The image Canadians form of our politicians is, rightly or wrongly, based on the few minutes we see of them each night on TV – the majority of which comes from Question Period. It's not to say she can't develop these skills – look at Stephen Harper, who had to learn French in the wake of becoming Conservative Party leader – but at a point where Canadians may be open to seeing a rejuvenated NDP in a new light, time isn't necessarily on her side.

For the NDP, they have Quebec, and need to win over voters elsewhere. In that mission, Jack Layton is crucial – and Ms. Turmel is in over her head